I got into an interesting online debate with Matthew DeBord, the car blogger from Slate, who thinks the electric-vehicle revolution will be a long time coming. He's unconvinced that we're about to go through a profound change in personal transportation.
"It will take more than 12 years for truly affordable pure-battery EVs to make up a fifth of the market," he said. "We'll get there, but I see the tipping point as sometime in the middle of century. Conveniently, I think this is also when peak oil will become an urgent problem. I'd like to see the carmakers focus aggressively on gas-electric hybrids for their next few product cycles, gradually hybridizing much of their fleets. I want to see diesels come into the mix, as well. In other words, while I think EV development should continue, we should commit to oil, not electricity, as our main transportation energy source for the next 30 years."
Aargh, I think peak oil will happen much sooner than the middle of the century. In fact, it may be here already. The high gas prices we saw last summer are almost certainly coming back, but this time they could go even higher. Our economic recession pushed peak oil back a bit by suppressing demand, but it is sure to come roaring back.
I replied to DeBord, "I don't minimize the challenges — range, cost — but I still see 20 percent (and in a best-case scenario, 30 percent) penetration by plug-in hybrids and pure battery EVs by 2020. Eventually, I see full electrification of the auto fleet." I guess time will prove one of us right, and it could well be him.
But I got strong support from no less a personality than Ford's hybrid vehicle director, Nancy Gioia. "For now, the goal is simply to convince motorists to plug in. From 10 to 25 percent of Ford's production by 2020 will be some type of electrified vehicle."
That's pretty much what I said. Ford is not the greenest big carmaker out there (that's either Toyota or Honda) but there's nothing small about its plug-in commitment. And fuel economy/climate regulation from the Obama administration will require cars to get 35.5 mpg by 2016. That's just the beginning. Yes, I feel confident to say green cars are coming, and in your driveway soon.
See; 'General Motors' and 'Chrysler'. The only way these makers could afford to build small cars was to sell large vehicles as an internal subsidy.
Consumption has eroded the resource base upon which consumption depends. It has done so by eroding the production basis, which puts manufacturers out of business.
If Ferrari makes electric cars, there will be a few of them, but the rest of the car makers will be long gone out of business.
Americans, if you want to get somewhere, walk!
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http://www.postpeakliving.com/content/youve-bought-your-last-car
but in a nutshell it's this:
* expensive oil (due to peak oil) will continue to make us poorer
* annual cars sales are currently under 10 million per year, which means the car fleet turnover is now over 27 years
* we are heading into energy descent largely with the fleet we have
On the other hand, we will turn into a nation of scooter and motorcycle drivers. But the age of the middle class all owning a car is coming to an end, in my view.
-Andre'
http://www.PostPeakLiving.com